The o-meters (Bernometer, Thunometer, Bielometer) show current and forecast air temperature on a 50 m grid for three Swiss cities. A random forest model combines weather forecasts (MeteoSwiss for Bern, Open-Meteo for Thun and Biel) with geodata such as terrain, land use and infrastructure. Every 15 minutes, the modelled field is corrected with live data from the low-cost city networks by interpolating the residuals between measured and modelled temperature. This set-up works, but it leaves several open questions that can each become a thesis:
(1) Model intercomparison: do gradient boosting, neural networks or Gaussian processes beat the current random forest when trained on the same predictors and tested on stations left out of training?
(2) Humidity and heat index: the networks also measure relative humidity, which is not used yet. Maps of humidity and heat index would describe heat stress better than temperature alone.
(3) Residual field: the current correction interpolates residuals by distance only. Modelling them explicitly with geodata shows where and why the model fails.
(4) Systematic errors: comparing forecasts from different sources and lead times with the later measurements reveals systematic biases, e.g. by time of day, weather situation or location, and gives the uncertainty of a local forecast.
5) Optionally, every thesis can include work on our new O-meter app.
Level: BSc / MSc
Methods: Statistical modelling, machine learning, uncertainty analysis.
Prerequisites: Knowledge in R / Python or willing to dive in. Willing to dive into modelling and machine learning.
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Stefan Brönnimann, (stefan.broennimann@unibe.ch)
Advisor: Patrick Kallabis, (patrick.kallabis@unibe.ch)