Long-term changes of weather EXTRemes in A LARGE ensemble of climate model simulations

A large part of the damage caused by ongoing and future climatic changes is not due to changes in the mean climate state but rather due to changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme events. However, our understanding of decadal-to-centennial variability in the frequency or intensity of extreme events is still rudimentary. It is limited by both, the length of the observational record and model simulation uncertainties.

Annual blocking frequency in the North Atlantic - European domain between 1601 and 2013

The combination of long observation-based data like the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR, Compo et al. 2011) with a 30 member ensemble of simulations with a state-of-the-art climate climate using historical instrumental observations and climate proxies spanning the last 400 years. The focus lies in the analysis of extreme events (such as storms, heat waves, droughts), associated atmospheric flow features (e.g. blockings, cyclone tracks) and their forcings (e.g. volcanoes, sea surface temperatures, solar activity) with a special focus on inter-decadal variability.

This study is funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation via the project EXTRA-LARGE (Contract number 143219).

Project team:

Marco Rohrer, Prof. Dr. Stefan Brönnimann, Prof. Dr. Olivia Romppainen-Martius (GIUB Bern)
Dr. Christoph Raible (KUP Bern)
Prof. Dr. Martin Wild (ETH Zürich)