Arctic Climate Processes Linked Through the Circulation of the Atmosphere
The climate of the Arctic is the product of a range of processes, involving not only the atmosphere but also the ocean, sea ice, land-surface conditions, and snow cover. These processes are linked through the atmospheric circulation. The circulation moves weather systems across the Arctic and controls surface climate and snow cover. It transports heat, water vapour, and aerosol particles from the midlatitudes into the Arctic, it distributes these quantities within the Arctic, and it affects sea ice through wind stress. At the same time, atmospheric circulation is affected by the energy balance of the Arctic surface and thus by sea-ice and snow cover as well as by factors outside the Arctic. The goal of the project is to study the role of these interactions for decadal variability and trends in Arctic climate. The five partners University of Bern (Switzerland), RIHMI (Russia), University of Vigo (Spain), Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam (Germany) and NILU (Norway) will use newly available observation based data sets, long reanalyses, numerical techniques such as trajectory modeling or nudging, and different climate models that allow addressing effects of sea-ice and snow cover. The knowledge gained from better understanding the processes governing decadal climate variability in the Arctic may eventually lead to a better assessment of climate models, supporting an increased accuracy of seasonal predictions, projections, and adaptation plans.
Publications and Reports
Akperov, M., I. Mokhov, A. Rinke, K. Dethloff, and H. Matthes (2014) Cyclones and their possible changes in the Arctic by the end of the twenty first century from regional climate model simulations, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1272-2.
Brönnimann, S., O. Martius, J. Franke, A. Stickler, and R. Auchmann (2013) Historical weather extremes in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”. In: Brönnimann, S. and O. Martius (Eds.) Weather extremes during the past 140 years. Geographica Bernensia G89, p. 7-17, doi: 10.4480/GB2013.G89.01.
Brönnimann, S., M. Wegmann, R. Wartenburger, and A. Stickler (2013) Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”. In: Brönnimann, S. and O. Martius (Eds.) Weather extremes during the past 140 years. Geographica Bernensia G89, p. 59-67, doi: 10.4480/GB2013.G89.07.
Cohen, J., J. A. Screen, J. C. Furtado, M. Barlow, D. Whittleston, D. Coumou, J. Francis, K. Dethloff, D. Entekhabi, J. Overland and J. Jones (2014) Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather, Nature Geoscience, 17, doi: 10.1038/NGEO2234.
Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, and D: Handorf (2013) Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes, Tellus, A, 65. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19375.
Knudsen E. M, Y. J. Orsolini, T. Furevik, and K. I. Hodges (submitted) Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt.
Orsolini Y. J., R. Senan, G. Balsamo, A. Weisheimer, F. Vitart, and F. Doblas-Reyes (submitted) Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/10.
Rinke, A., K. Dethloff, W. Dorn, D. Handorf, and J. C. Moore (2013) Simulated Arctic atmospheric feedbacks associated with late summer sea ice anomalies, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (14), pp. 7698-7714. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50584.
Sterin A. M., A. A. Timofeev (2014) On the features of surface temperature trends over the territory of Russian Federation as obtained by quantile regression method. Proc. RIHMI-WDC, Issue 179 (in Russian, accepted for publication).
Sterin A. M., A. A. Timofeev. (2014) On the analysis by quantile regression of the changes in temperature over the Russia. Meteorology and Hydrology (in Russian, prepared for publication).
Wegmann, M., S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, D. Folini, M. Wild, and J. Luterbacher (2014) Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: Possible cause for “Years Without a Summer”. J. Climate, 27, 3683-3691, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00524.1.
Wu, B., D. Handorf, K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, and A. Hu (2013) Winter Weather Patterns over Northern Eurasia and Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Monthly Weather Review, 141, 3786–3800. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00046.1.
Vázquez, M., R. Nieto, M. Wegmann, R. Jaiser, B. Crasemann, O. Bulygina, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, L. Gimeno, A. Sterin, Y. Orsolini, K. Dethloff, S. Brönnimann (in preparation) Arctic moisture source for Eurasian snow cover variations in autumn.
Presentations and Outreach
Agurenko A.O., Khokhlova A.V. Multi-year variability of atmosphere humidity over Arctic region. VII All-Russian Hydrological Congress. 19-21 November 2013, Sankt-Peterburg.
Agurenko A.O., Khokhlova A.V. Multi-year variability of atmosphere humidity over Arctic region. VII All-Russian Hydrological Congress. // VII All-Russian Hydrological Congress. 19-21 November 2013, Sankt-Peterburg.
Bulygina O.N., N.N. Korshunova and V.N. Razuvaev. Changes in the wind regime over northern Eurasia, AGU Fall Meeting (3-7 December,2012).