Projekte
Severe convective outbreaks and the large-scale
Outbreaks of severe convection in central Europe are often marked by severe weather impacts over a widespread area. Being associated with multiple hazards, such as flash flooding, significant hail, severe straight-line winds, and intense lightning activity, these events are of considerable interest to society. Convective outbreaks are often associated with a characteristic synoptic situation, hallmarked by southwesterly flow in the mid-troposphere. We investigate the relation between large-scale meteorological features and widespread convection to understand the situations when high-impact convective outbreaks occur. Understanding the large-scale situation is key to improving the predictability of severe convective outbreaks.
Subseasonal predictability of severe convective outbreaks
There is a lack of current knowledge on how well subseasonal forecasts perform for convective outbreaks. Although the small-scale convective activity cannot be predicted far in advance, the mesoscale convective environment and large-scale flow patterns associated with these events may be possible to predict at longer lead times of days to weeks.
Given the current lack of subseasonal predictions for convection in central Europe, this project targets the improvement of our understanding of longer-term processes leading to the build-up of severe convective environments.
Convective environments in AI-based forecasts
A new generation of purely AI-based weather prediction models was released over the last year. Thus far they remain untested for convective parameters, which rely on the accuracy of the thermodynamic and fluid-dynamic vertical profile. We evaluate the performance of various AI models for convective instability and wind shear in comparison to a numerical weather prediction model.
